Tag: NFL

2016-17 NFL Playoffs – NFC Wild Card

Following on from my insight into the AFC playoff race, here’s your guide to the NFC playoffs.

New York Giants and Green Bay Packers

This game is easily the juciest game of the weekend. One team on a 6-game winning streak against another known for shutting down opposing offenses. Even better, the Eli Manning is 2-0 in the playoffs when playing at Lambeau Field, so this really should be the game to watch…

The Giants are 3-2 against playoff opposition this seasom. The Packers are 5-2, including a win against the Giants at Lambeau Field. The only playoff team the Giants have beaten on the road is the Cowboys (week 1). The only playoff team the Packers have lost to at home is the Cowboys (week 6).

The game isd essentially two teams’ weakenesses matched against each other on one side, and their strengths on the other. Are the Packers’ offense (ranked #4 on points) better than the Giants’ defense (#2)? Are are the Packers’ defense (#21) worse than the Giants’ offense (#26)?

At some point, Aaron Rodgers has to turn the ball over. At some point, the Packers’ run must end. At some point, Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Junior will connect and show that the Giants’ offense can be better than that #26 ranking.

The Giants’ pass coverage and the Packers’ issues in coverage, especially down the field on Clay Matthews’ side, mean this matchup is built to expose these. It may not happen, but this is the best chance the Giants will get.

I’m not confident picking this game, not least because both teams have been inconsistent this season. Despite the Packers’ impressive six-game winning streak, only the win against the Seahawks was unexpected. The other five were weak opponents. They’ve given up at least 24 points in each of their last three games, and that makes me think they’re not quite as good as others think, and that the Giants have just enough hope they can overcome their ropey road form to pull this one off.

The Giants and Packers met at Lambeau Field in week 5. The Packers won 23-16.

My pick: Giants
Predictor says: Packers, 80% confidence, by 8.5 points.

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks

Let’s cut to the chase here: the Detroit Lions are the only playoff team not to have beaten another playoff team this season, and it’s not for lack of opportunity. They have lost to the Packers at home, and on the road to the Packers, Cowboys, Giants and Texans.

That really should tell you all you need to know. Against non-playoff teams, the Lions are 9-2. Against playoff teams, they are 0-5. They’ve had a good season, but it ends here. They’ve hit their glass ceiling. That shouldn’t disappoint them, they just need to accept they’ve hit their maximum potential this season.

The Seahawks, on the other hand, whilst inconsistent this season, have played well against playoff opposition, winning three out of four games. They beat the Falcons and Dolphins in Seattle, and beat a Brady-led Patriots team on the road in an impressive week 10 win. Their only loss was an odd road loss to the Packers 38-10 in week 14.

The real differentiator here is that whilst both teams score around 20 points a game, the Lions give up around 21, whereas the Seahawks are closer to 17 points a game. I don’t see the Lions running many points up on the road in Seattle.

My pick: Seahawks
Predictor says: Seahawks, 80% confidence, by 9 points.

Bye Week: Dallas Cowboys

If the New England Patriots are the best team in the NFL, most people would agree the Dallas Cowboys are the next best, and the best in the NFC. The regular season definitely suggests that, although come the playoffs, they will have to beat quality and experienced opposition to get to the Super Bowl.

The question mark the Cowboyd have to answer is this: when facing up to the Seahawks, Packers and Giants, do they have the poise to beat teams with quarterbacks like Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning, who between them have five Super Bowl appearances, four of those on the winning side? No matter how good the Cowboys are, they will be up against teams who have proved they can win in the postseason, even if they’ve been merely average in the regular season.

Outside of experience, the Cowboys only have one obvious weakness to exploit: defense. They won 7 out of 8 games at home, their only loss was in week 1, to the New York Giants, and even then only by a point. Furthermore, four of their wins were double digit wins. However, they give up a median of 20 points at home, which whilst not the worst of the playoff teams, is not league leading either (though it should be pointed out, the three teams leading the league on this all missed out on the playoffs).

If you can slow down the Cowboys on offense, they’re beatable, because their defense allows scores – every road team scored at least 14 points this season against the Cowboys, compared to the Patriots who allowed three road teams a combined 13 points, whilst piling on 94 points at the same time.

Bye Week: Atlanta Falcons

If the Cowboys’ defense is a weakness, the Falcons’ defense is positively ugly. They allowed 29 points or more in 6 of their home games this season, which would put road teams in the top 10 for scoring in the NFL this season.

Of course, the reason Atlanta are in the playoffs is that they lead the league in scoring, comfortably, with an average of nearly 34 points a game.

That’s great, but what happens against quality opposition? Well, their two closest games this season at home came against two playoff teams. They played the Green Bay Packers in week 8, winning 33-32, and played the Kansas City Chiefs in week 13, losing 29-28.

In fact, despite all their scoring, five of their home games were one possession games. They beat three teams by two, three or even four scores, but those teams were the Panthers, Cardinals and 49ers, none of whom were great teams this season.

It’s hard to put 40 points up against a playoff team, and when you concede an average of 25+ points at home, you don’t have much margin for error. In short, this team gives up too many points to win the Super Bowl.

And the bad news? The most likely visitors to Atlanta next weekend are the Seattle Seahawks. To me, that’s the worst possible matchup for this team.

2016-17 NFL Playoffs – AFC Wild Card

With the postseason about to start, you’ve been dying for a low-down on the AFC race. Wait no longer.

There’s one thing I love about January: the NFL playoffs. There’s also one thing that disappoints me about January: the NFL season is nearly over. So, if it’s nearly over, let’s enjoy it while it’s still here.

Looking at my detailed statistics, fine-tuned for the 2016-17 season and more accurate than ever due to my top-secret new formula, I’ll take you through the AFC Wild Card games…

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans

Last season, the Houston Texans won their division and hosted an AFC West team in the playoffs. They lost. If the Oakland Raiders had won in week 17, this would be a rematch with the Kansas City Chiefs, and I suspect they would lose again.

As it is, the Raiders’ star quarterback is out for the season, their backup is also injured, and they travel to Houston for an intriguing match up.

On paper, this Raiders team (12-4) is better than last season’s Chiefs (11-50, whilst the Texans are again merely an average team winning a poor division. So what are they good at?

The Texans are very good at home, going 7-1 in the regular season. They even beat the Kansas City Chiefs 19-12 in week 2. They have allowed fewer than 15 points at home in half of their home games, although their opposition haven’t been particularly strong.

Still, you can only beat the teams in front of you, and four of their seven wins were by seven points or more – not bad considering they haven’t scored 30 points in a single game at home all season.

Their other strength, as you may have picked up, is their defense. Overall, their defense ranks 10th in the league for points allowed, but at home, only the Chiefs, Patriots and Seahawks have meaner defenses.

In short, they may be an average team, but that’s averaged out between a good home team and a poor road team. Only the Seahawks have a larger disparity between home and road performance. Good thing they’re at home then!

So, what of the Raiders?

Let’s be honest, if Derek Carr wasn’t injured, Oakland would be hot favourites. But, he is injured. So is their backup. They will likely need to start their third-string quarterback, rookie Connor Cook.

Good news for Oakland: the Texans average around 20.5 points at home, and the Raiders average around 22.5 on the road. However, the Raiders’ road defense is as bad as the Cleveland Browns on the road, and as I’ve mentioned, the Texans are in the top 10. Everything points to a home win.

My projections give it to the Texans by 2.5 points, before you account for the Raiders’ quarterback issues, despite being ranked #26 in points difference in the whole NFL – ahead of only the Jaguars, Jets, Bears, Rams, 49ers and Browns.

The teams met in week 14 in Oakland, where the Raiders won 27-20.

My pick: Texans.
Predictor says: Texans, 100% confidence, by 2.5 points.

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers

At the start of the season, people talked of the Steelers as potential Super Bowl champions. After the first couple of weeks, it all went a bit wrong.

After winning four of their first five games, they lost four on the bounce, including to the Cowboys, Patriots and Dolphins, before winning out in their last seven games.

The trouble is, only one of those final seven games was against playoff opposition (the Giants), although in week 3 they did hammer the Chiefs 43-14 at home. So, overall they are 2-3 against playoff opposition.

The good thing for the Steelers? Their two losses at home were to the AFC and NFC #1 seeds, so they only lose to really good teams. And the Dolphins aren’t really good.

The Dolphins are 1-3 against playoff opposition. The Patriots beat them comfortably in Foxboro back when Tom Brady was suspended in the interests of trying to stop the Patriots winning. They were squeaked out by the Seahawks in week 1 when the Seahawks looked very lost. And in week 17, they were annihilated by the Patriots.

Don’t get too excited by the 9 wins in 10 games between weeks 6 and 16 either. Yes, they beat the Steelers, but that was at home, and their other wins were against the Bills (twice), Jets (twice), Chargers, Rams, 49ers and Cardinals. The Steelers aside (who are 3-5 on the road), none of those teams even went .500 this season. This is a team flying high on a weak schedule, who get beat against quality opposition.

The Dolphins are 4-4 on the road, and are middling at best in terms of points scored and points allowed. They average 19 points on the road (the Steelers average 28.5). They don’t give up any more points on the road, but it won’t be enough to save them.

Points difference gives this to the Steelers by 12.5.

The teams met in week 6 in Miami (another reverse fixture!), where the Dolphins won 30-15.

My pick: Steelers.
Predictor says: Steelers, 100% confidence, by 12.5 points.

Bye Week: New England Patriots

The Patriots are the best team in football, even without Gronkowski, and without Jamie Collins. Forget the hype around the Cowboys, Packers and Seahawks – they’re all good, but the Patriots are the team to knock off the top of the perch.

The Patriots may not win the Super Bowl – plenty of favourites don’t – but they are by far the team to beat. The Dallas Cowboys look very good, but their rookie quarterback will need to step up a gear in the playoffs to hold off two of the Falcons, Packers, Seahawks and Giants to just get to the Super Bowl (don’t worry about the Lions, they’re toast).

So why are the Patriots so good? Well, we know all about Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, but the standout reason the Patriots are so good this year is that they give up fewer than 16 points a game – that’s two points a game fewer than the next best team (the Giants). They win their games by an average of 12 points – nearly 4 points more than the next best team (the Falcons).

People questioned trading Jamie Collins to the Browns. Things might change in the playoffs, but they haven’t looked like they’ve missed him much so far.

Then there’s Martellus Bennett. The Patriots have a second tight end who can win any matchup – with one upside on Rob Gronkowski. He’s not a walking hospital case.

Finally, there’s the run game. The Patriots aren’t known for the run – or at least, they weren’t. But with Dion Lewis, LaGarrette Blount, Brandon Bolden, James White and James Develin in the backfield, this Patriots team can run the ball down any team’s throat.

And that’s why they’re the team to beat.

Bye Week: Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs secured a bye on the back of Oakland’s bad fortune. They’ll be glad they did, as a trip to Houston would have been tricky, having lost there in week 2.

If any team in the AFC can beat the Patriots to the Super Bowl, this is probably the team to do it. They won 6 out of 8 on the road on the back of one of the toughest schedules in the league. Of their road games, four were against playoff teams, and two more were against last year’s Super Bowl teams, and they were 4-2 in those games.

So, if they get to to the AFC Championship and it’s in Foxboro, they have certainly shown they’re good enough to compete. The question is, can they get there?

Their home form hasn’t been as good as it should be. They’ve only played one home game against playoff opposition – against the Raiders, which they won. They lost twice, to Tampa Bay and Tennessee, both games by two points. Six of their games were decided by one possession.

Their most likely opposition in the Divisional Round is the Pittsburgh Steelers, and that would be juicy match-up. They’ll be glad to get this week off to prepare.

2015-16 NFL Playoffs – Super Bowl

It’s the biggest game of the (NFL) season – the Super Bowl. It’s Carolina against Denver, Peyton against Cam, and two cracking defenses against one another. Who’s going to win? You know what I’m going to say already, right?

So, after 255 games (let’s ignore the Pro Bowl), a few upsets along the way, and what seems like an unusually high number of injuries to big name players this year, we’ve finally made it to the Super Bowl. Super Bowl 50, from San Francisco.

In the Championship Round, the Denver Broncos beat the New England Patriots. They put points on the board early and forced New England to chase from behind. This helped them for two main reasons:

  1. After the first quarter, the Patriots’ defense figured them out and the Broncos’ offense was terrible for the rest of the day;
  2. The Patriots’ offensive line was beaten up before play started, and this only got worse chasing the game.

I said the Broncos needed to rely on their defense to win, and I think that view was vindicated. Their defense overpowered the offensive line to an extent that even quick balls were nigh-on impossible for Tom Brady to complete. The Patriots’ run game was non-existent and they couldn’t give Brady time to complete passes. Despite a late surge, they couldn’t do enough to pull it back. Denver survived.

The Panthers had it much easier. An early pick-six helped, but Carson Palmer struggled to throw well, whilst Cam Newton had no such issues. The Panthers showed they are a very good team on offense, defense and special teams. They have no big weaknesses, and that showed in the crushing scoreline of theiv victory.

So, how will the Super Bowl pan out?

I’ll be honest. I don’t see Denver winning. This isn’t a case of “they’ll need to rely on their defense making plays”. Even that won’t be enough. This is Carolina’s to lose. Here’s why:

  • The Panthers have a pick-six in both their last two games. Peyton Manning leads the league in picks thrown this season.
  • The Broncos’ defense can’t rush the Panthers like they did the Patriots – the Panthers have a healthier offensive line. Not league-leading by any stretch, but certainly better than the Patriots’ had two weeks ago.
  • Cam Newton can escape the pocket in a way Tom Brady (and Peyton Manning) can only dream of.
  • Probably the Panthers’ biggest weakness – the deep ball – is also the Broncos’ biggest weakness.
  • The Broncos scored 30 points only twice this season (once, against the Patriots, required overtime). The Panthers have done it twice in the playoffs alone – against the Seahawks and the Cardinals, who both have highly rated defenses. They also did it eight times in the regular season. They are hard to stop.

My Power Rankings give this to Carolina by 2.267 – 2.042, and I agree. Ron Rivera should be a very happy man at the end of the game tonight.

 

2015-16 NFL Playoffs – Conference Round

Having picked three out of four winners last week, can I pick both winners this week? I hope so. As both number one and number two seeds play each other, on paper at least, it should be hard to separate the teams.

In the Wild Card round, all four road teams won. In the Divisional Round last week, all four home teams won. So, what will happen this week? One home team and one away team?

Perhaps. Here’s how I see the Conference Round games.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

Last week, the Patriots hosted the Chiefs, who had won eleven games straight. Although the final score add the game appear close, in truth the Patriots were never really threatened.

The key for the Patriots was that Tom Brady was able to throw quickly, often to Julian Edelman, but also to Rob Gronkowski, and so the Chiefs’ pass rush was nullified. The Patriots didn’t really bother to run the football much. Once the Chiefs were behind, they were always going to find it hard to come back to win.

The Broncos really struggled to get past a Steelers team with an injured quarterback which was also missing its top wide receiver and top two rushers. Trailing for most of the game, the Broncos ground out a result in a game they deserved to lose. Was it the offense that won them the game? No, it was a turnover.

And this is what today’s game comes down to, for me. Denver have shown no ability to generate consistent offense with Peyton Manning as quarterback this year. He has a bad record in the playoffs and a terrible record against Brady’s Patriots (although less so in the playoffs, for the record).

The Patriots don’t turn the ball over much. Fumblers are treated harshly and an Tom Brady interception which isn’t the result of a tipped ball, or that hasn’t been thrown up into the air by a receiver, is headline news. If Denver are going to win today, they need a better gameplan than to wait for the Patriots to turn the ball over. It may happen, but the statistics are against you.

The ratings give this to the Broncos (2.04 to 1.51), but that’s misleading. The Patriots were back to their best last week, and Matt Patricia’s defense will expect to force Peyton Manning into throwing picks. Expect them to goad him into throwing long and taking their chance at picking up the pieces.

Peyton Manning has one touchdown pass at Mile High this season. Tom Brady has three.

Pick: Patriots.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

Arizona won against the Green Bay Packers last week in a thrilling overtime victory. The game was a tight affair until the final quarter, when most of the points were scored. However, despite Aaron Rodgers throwing two exceptional lucky throws at the end of the game, an improvised throw to Larry Fitzgerald on the run in overtime resulted in a huge play, and ultimately, a touchdown, to end the game.

Carolina’s route to the Conference Round was equally eventful, as they led 31-0 at halftime and then let Seattle come back to 31-24 by the end of the game. That’s the second time this season Carolina have taken a huge lead and then let a team come back into the game, although in Seattle’s case, it always seemed like a false hope, from my perspective at least.

So what’s the key in this game? Well, Carolina need to stop Arizona running the ball, and also need to take Larry Fitzgerald out of the game. Arizona need to keep Cam Newton in the pocket and force him to make plays without breaking free.

I was perhaps rash in giving Arizona no chance in this game, but I do still favour the Panthers. Carolina did, however, intercept Russell Wilson twice early on last week, so Arizona need to be careful. The Cardinals’ defense may have a fierce reputation, but the Panthers’ defense is no slouch either. In fact, all four teams left in the playoffs have defenses worth writing home about.

The ratings give this to Carolina (2.42 to 2.41) – it’s the number one home team against the number one road team, and it’s officially too close to call.

Unofficially, this is a matchup of two well-rounded teams, rather than teams littered with stars (although they probably have one each in Cam Newton and Larry Fitzgerald). I’m picking Carolina to win because I think Cam Newton has enough to guide the Panthers home, and it’d be no less than he deserves for his career in the NFL so far.

Pick: Panthers.

Playoff Rankings

For reference, the following table shows the rankings for each of the teams in the playoffs as of the Divisional Round, with their playoff seeding, home and road rankings.

TeamSeedHomeRoad
Carolina Panthers12.422.11
Denver Broncos12.042.04
New England Patriots22.111.51
Arizona Cardinals22.062.41
Kansas City Chiefs52.041.70
Green Bay Packers51.791.79
Pittsburgh Steelers62.061.38
Seattle Seahawks61.721.72

2015-16 NFL Playoffs – Divisional Round

The Wild Card round was unusual in that all the road teams had significant playoff experience (especially at quarterback), and ultimately that showed as all four home teams were knocked out. Can we expect the same this week? I doubt it,

My predictions last week proved to be a little hit and miss.

The Seahawks beat Minnesota, but it most definitely was a contest, and they needed the Vikings to miss a (usually) relatively easy field goal in extreme cold in order to come out on top.

The Packers beat Washington in a game I said was very tough to call, and it was only because they found great form in the second half they managed to pull the win off.

I said everything pointed to a Chiefs win (but couldn’t bring myself to pick and Andy Reid team to win), and they did. Even more comfortably than anyone really thought. The Texans shut out at home – the only home team to be shut out this season.

And I picked the Steelers to beat the Bengals. I said it was theirs to lose, and they nearly did lose it. However, having thrown away a big lead, the Bengals couldn’t then take advantage as they managed to throw the game away in spectacular fashion later on. In amusement terms, it ranks with the Colts’ miserable excuse for a play on 4th and 3 against the Patriots earlier this season.

So, what’s on the divisional round card for this week?

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots

Normally, this would be an easy game to call. The Patriots rarely lose at home, and the Chiefs, despite their eleven game winning streak, would not normally be seen as a team to fear in the AFC.

However, having annihilated the Texans last week, and with the Patriots winning only two of their last six, this becomes a tough game to call. On paper, The Patriots have the advantage (2.115 to 1.701). They are third-ranked at home, and the Chiefs are ninth-ranked on the road.

The Patriots have lost once at home this season, to the Eagles (twelfth-ranked on the road) in a game decided by special teams rather than offense and in a game where the Patriots were ravaged by injury.

The Chiefs run the ball well. Alex Smith can scramble and run well, and he looks after the football. They have beaten Denver on the road this season, but Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are very different propositions.

The Patriots will struggle to get many takeaways and may struggle if they fall behind. However, they should play better than in recent weeks, having had a week off. They’ve had a number of players injured who should now be healthier – Tom Brady, Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola on offense, and Dont’a Hightower on defense.

With New England at home, Edelman back and an extra week to prepare, I think there’s enough here for the Patriots to win. Plus, the last time Brady played the Chiefs, he was benched in one of the worst New England performances in living memory. He’ll be out for revenge.

Edelman is the key. It’s not so hard to beat the Patriots if you only need to focus on one top receiver. However, it’s much harder when you have to focus on two. Brady needs to get the ball out quickly and Edelman is the man he’ll be looking for.

I’d be foolish to go against the Patriots, and I won’t. But I’m not confident about it. Whoever wins, they’ll fancy their chances next week.

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals

This is an intriguing game. The Packers have struggled in the second half of the season, but they rediscovered their form in the second half against Washington last week. Their success seems to be linked to their ability to run the ball well. When they can do that, they pass the ball better too.

The good news for the Packers is that Eddie Lacy will likely play against the Cardinals. The bad news is that Davante Adams won’t. The Cardinals, of course, have had a week off to prepare and rest…

And that’s probably a good thing. They really struggled against the Seahawks in week 17, so a week to get that out of their system was probably needed. Green Bay’s offense, whilst better last week, is probably still one of the weaker ones in the playoffs overall (unless they show more consistency this weekend), and their defense is not anywhere near as strong as Arizona’s.

The rankings give this to Arizona (2.236 to 1.788) and I’d agree with it. However, Arizona’s loss to the Seahawks does just make me wonder a little, as does Green Bay’s second half performance last week. I still think Arizona will win fairly comfortably – by at least ten points.

But I still don’t give them a hope next week.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers

I’ll be straight to the point. This, for me, is the game that most likely gives us this year’s Super Bowl winner. Seattle are the most likely team to beat Carolina out of all the teams left. If Carolina win, they’ll fear no-one. If Seattle win, they’ve beaten the best home team in the league this season. Part of me really wants to see a Patriots – Seahawks rematch, but I think that’s unlikely. Of course, we could see a Denver – Seattle rematch too…

Anyway, the Seahawks have been on fire towards the end of the season, despite their fortunate escape last week. However, their reliance on that fortunate escape was in part down to the exceptionally cold weather they were playing in.

This week, Marshawn Lynch will likely play. Will he play the whole game? No-one knows. But if he plays, he should be fresh. He should be a big presence in the game if he’s on the field.

The Panthers are favoured here (2.267 to 1.719) but the Seahawks have a mean rush defense, and can burn any team through the air or on the ground. It’s strange to say it given Seattle’s history and the Legion of Boom, but I think the key to this game is how the Panthers pass the ball. They’ll need to pass well to win the game, and I think Seattle are vulnerable there. But it’s a very dangerous approach and can go very wrong…

The Seahawks have given up one offensive touchdown in their last six road games. This won’t be a shoot-out. The statistics say Carolina should win. I say Seattle will somehow manage to grind this out. But the winner will go to the Super Bowl, and whoever they play, they’ll be favourites to win it.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

This one, for me, is an easy pick. The Denver Broncos will win, even with Peyton Manning starting. On paper, they have a comfortable advantage (2.042 to 1.375).

The Steelers will be missing their top rusher (Le’Veon Bell) and receiver (Antonio Brown) and the quarterback will be playing with a separated shoulder.

On the other side, the Broncos have one of the strongest defenses in the league, have two healthy rushers who have been competing for carries all season, and a healthy array of receivers.

This will be a comfortable win for the Broncos, even with the second and third-best quarterbacks in the game. And whoever they play next week, it will be an intriguing game.

Playoff Rankings

For reference, the following table shows the rankings for each of the teams still in the playoffs, with their playoff seeding, home and road rankings.

TeamSeedHomeRoad
Carolina Panthers12.422.11
Denver Broncos12.042.04
New England Patriots22.111.51
Arizona Cardinals22.062.41
Kansas City Chiefs52.041.70
Green Bay Packers51.791.79
Pittsburgh Steelers62.061.38
Seattle Seahawks61.721.72

2015-16 NFL Playoffs – NFC Wild Card

Having already looked at the AFC playoff contenders yesterday, today is the turn of the NFC teams. Can the Carolina Panthers win with homefield advantage? Will the Seattle Seahawks continue their hot run? Can the Green Bay Packers rediscover their form? Time will tell…

By the time this post is published, the AFC wild card games will be done, so my views may well look very silly. Going by my predictions in recent years, there’s a very good possibility of that – my record of picking winners in the playoffs has been hit-and-miss. However, it’s not going to stop me, here are my thoughts on tonight’s NFC games and the bye week teams.

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings

According to my rankings, and the NFC seedings, the Vikings should be the favourites in this game. Their overall ranking leads the Seahawks (1.968 to 1.719), and when accounting for home/road rankings, this lead increases (2.146 to 1.719).

However, don’t be fooled. The Seahawks started the season badly, losing four of their first six games (to the Rams, Packers, Bengals and Panthers). However, they’ve lost only twice since then (to the Cardinals, and the Rams again). In that stretch, they’ve also beaten three playoff teams – the Cardinals, Steelers and Vikings. Thus, their record against playoff teams this season stands at 3-4. However, in week 10 it was 0-4, so it’s clear to see which direction they’ve been heading in.

Now, the Vikings. They’re not a bad team, but they are flattered by their #3 seeding. They have a 6-2 record at home this season, but the two they lost, they lost heavily. Both those losses were against playoff teams (Green Bay, Seattle). Both were in the last six weeks. Oh, yes? Have you joined the dots yet? The Seahawks didn’t beat the Vikings in Seattle. They beat them in Minnesota. They beat them 38-7.

The Vikings are 2-4 against playoff teams this season. When they’ve won, it’s been close – the game against the Packers in week 17 was their clearest win, and that was settled inside the two minute warning. The two games they’ve lost, they’ve been outscored 68-20.

No contest.

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins

This is an intriguing game. The Redskins are, according to my rankings, the weakest team in the playoffs, but they’re up against a team that’s struggled in the second half of the season, but without much cause. Yes, Jordy Nelson is out, but he has been for the whole season. Their QB is healthy, and a secure starter, their running back is healthy, and so are their other wide receivers, yet they can’t score.

Whilst the Patriots have stumbled into the playoffs having lost two running backs, a third of their defense, most of their offensive line and at one point, their top two wide receivers and tight end, the Packers have no such players to welcome back as the playoffs progress. This is as good as it gets – and it starts from a worse position.

That said, they’re probably better on the road than at home right now. They’ve won three of their last four on the road, one of them against playoff contenders (Minnesota).

Washington, on the other hand, can’t always be trusted at home. They lost in week 1 to Miami, and have won 6 or the last 7 at home, but lost at home to the Cowboys in week 13 – a result that would make the shortlist for shock road win of the season.

Put with that, they’ve really not had any strong opposition to play at home this season. Only the New York Jets have had an easier home schedule. Thus, the faltering visitors meet the untested hosts. And, of the four games this weekend, this is the only one where the teams haven’t met this season. A tough one to call.

The Redskins are 0-2 against playoff teams this season (both road losses) and the Packers are 4-3. However, the Packers’ last two games were both against playoff teams, and they lost by a combined 58-20. I’d like to see the Packers win, but current form says the Redskins should do it.

Bye week: Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers top my rankings this season. It’s easy to see why. They went 15-1 in the regular season, losing once once, to the Atlanta Falcons on the road in week 16. This will probably help them, as no-one is now talking about an undefeated season – an unwelcome distraction gone.

Only once did they score less than 20 points, and that was against the Falcons. They scored 37 points or more 7 times. They kept their opponents to less than 20 points 8 times, including a shut-out against the Falcons in week 14. It’s easy to see why they went 15-1. They also beat the Texans, Seahawks, Packers and Redskins along the way.

No-one visiting Carolina will be favourites, and the only team I can see winning there is the Seahawks. Of course, if the Seahawks beat the Vikings this weekend, the road to the Super Bowl would then likely go through Arizona, with Seattle having already beaten Arizona in week 17…

Bye week: Arizona Cardinals

Ah, yes. Arizona. This team finished second in my rankings, and for most of the season, they too have scored freely. They’ve scored 30 points of more 9 times, and forty points or more 4 times, although the quality of those teams was towards the lower end of the rankings.

They’ve beaten the Packers, Vikings, Bengals and Seahawks, but lost to the Steelers. But, more to the point, they were crushed at home to the Seahawks in week 17. I know they didn’t play their starters for the whole game, and they claim they weren’t trying to win the game, but the Seahawks were crushing them before the starters were benched. If they play the Seahawks in the playoffs (which could only happen in the NFC Championship game), I don’t see them winning.

Unfortunately for them, not playing the Seahawks likely means playing the Panthers – unless Minnesota win against Seattle and the winner of the Redskins – Packers game beats Carolina. That’s a very long shot…

Sorry, Arizona. Your route to the Super Bowl is just too hard.

NFC Rankings

For reference, the following table shows the rankings for each of the NFC teams in the playoffs, with their playoff seeding, home and road rankings.

TeamSeedHomeRoad
Carolina Panthers12.422.11
Arizona Cardinals22.062.41
Minnesota Vikings32.151.79
Washington Redskins42.041.02
Green Bay Packers51.791.79
Seattle Seahawks61.721.72

2015-16 NFL Playoffs – AFC Wild Card

This weekend is the opening weekend of the playoffs. Which teams will make it through to the divisional round and play against the top seeds in their conference? This preview looks at the AFC contenders.

With the regular season over, it’s now win-or-go-home for the twelve teams remaining. Eight of those teams play this weekend in the wild card weekend. I’ll look at the AFC teams first, since they play on Saturday, with the help of some statistics I’ve compiled over the course of the season.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans

The Houston Texans won their division with a 9-7 record this season – the weakest record of the AFC division winners. By contrast, the Chiefs took the fifth seed with an 11-5 record and for a while in week 17 looked like they might win their division, as Denver struggled to beat the Chargers with the division (and #1 seed) on the line. Moreover, having started 1-5, they won their last ten games – the longest winning streak in the league by a long way. So, given their hot streak, and Houston’s weak division record, are the Chiefs destined to win?

Well, according to my rankings, the Chiefs are the better team (1.873 to 1.517). However, when looking at the home/road rankings, it’s much closer. The Chiefs still edge it, barely (1.701 to 1.684). That’s a margin of 0.017. Twenty-three games have featured teams this close so far this season. Home teams are 9-14 in those games. This includes two road wins for Houston (Jacksonville in week 6 and the Colts in week 13). Kansas also lost a home game to Denver in week 2.

Oh, and the Chiefs and Texans also played once – in week 1. The Chiefs won by 7. On the road – a repeat of this game! So, in tight games featuring these teams, road teams are 4-0. Good luck, Houston… That game in week 1 was the only time this season the Chiefs have been slim favourites in a road game, or that Houston have hosted a road team who are.

Verdict: It all points to a Chiefs win, doesn’t it? So I’ll pick the Texans.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

The Steelers and Bengals have looked great and awful in equal measure at times this year, and it’s been the same cause for both: their quarterback. Big Ben has been phenomenal on the whole when fit, and the Bengals looked unstoppable before Andy Dalton attempted a tackle and broke his thumb.

Otherwise, teams both have struggled, which has also affected their ratings. The Bengals have a higher rating (2.063 to 1.719), but accounting for home/road rankings, it’s 2.063 to 1.375. So, Bengals to win?

Yeah, just one problem with that. Andy Dalton won’t be playing. Throw all the stats you like at me, I don’t think the Bengals can beat a Steelers team (even at home) that has Big Ben and Antonio Brown, when all the Bengals have is a backup at QB. One and done they will be – for a fifth straight year. Ouch.

Don’t believe me? Well, despite their stellar home rating, the Bengals have lost at home twice this season, both times to AFC playoff opponents – Houston in week 10, and, in week 14, the Pittsburgh Steelers. They did beat two other playoff contenders – the Chiefs in week 4, by 15, and the Seahawks in week 5, by 3, but both those teams were really struggling at that point.

This is the Steelers’ to lose.

Bye week: Denver Broncos

According to my rankings, the Denver Broncos are second to the Bengals in the AFC (2.063 to 2.042). However, with Andy Dalton out, they should be the de facto #1 team – if it weren’t for their Peyton vs Brock battle at QB. It’s hard to know which option is better, but they’ve gone with Peyton Manning for now. Time will tell. They have homefield advantage, but according to the rankings, they are equally good at home as on the road.

They have lost at home – to the Raiders, and more notably, the Chiefs, and the Chiefs will visit Mile High if they win against the Texans and the Steelers lose to the Bengals.

Most interestingly, Denver’s home games are close. Aside from the loss to the Chiefs (by 16) and the victory over Green Bay (by 19), their other 6 games have been won by a total of 25 points. Just over 4 points a game isn’t much for a #1 seed.

They’re beatable.

Bye week: New England Patriots

The Patriots started well, and should have secured the #1 seed. However, injuries hampered them in the last few weeks and that’s made their job potentially a little harder. The key for the Patriots is to get their starters healthy. If that happens, they are the most likely winners of the AFC. If it doesn’t (especially Julian Edelman), they have no hope.

The Patriots average over 30 points a game at home. They lost only once – to the Philadelphia Eagles, in a game affected by a combination of key injuries and abysmal special teams. Even then, they only lost by 7. They have beaten two other playoff opponents on home turf – the Redskins by 17, and the Steelers by 7 in the very first game of the season. They also beat the Jets by 7.

However, they haven’t played a tough game at home in the second half of the season, so they have a lot to prove. But would you bet against them? I wouldn’t. But the key is getting starters back from injury.

AFC Rankings

For reference, the following table shows the rankings for each of the AFC teams in the playoffs, with their playoff seeding, home and road rankings.

TeamSeedHomeRoad
Denver Broncos12.042.04
New England Patriots22.111.51
Cincinnati Bengals32.062.06
Houston Texans41.681.35
Kansas City Chiefs52.041.70
Pittsburgh Steelers62.061.38