2018-19 NFL Playoffs – Conference Round

With a place in the Super Bowl on the line, can the road teams do what they couldn’t last week, and win?

So, I got three out of four last week, but my predictor got all four correct, which means we’re both on 6-2 with three games left in the playoffs. What’s going to happen this week?

(Please forgive the shorter post. I may have miscalculated the kickoff times this week!)

Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints

The Saints are the top-ranked team in my Power Rankings. The main difference between the two sides is the defense, and that’s where I see this game won.

Many will focus on the Rams’ ability to stop the run. I’m not so sure that will help. I expect the Saints to use motion and quick underneath passes to bypass the rush of Suh and Donald, getting the ball out quickly. If they can give Brees some pretection, the Rams will also really struggle to hold Michael Thomas quiet.

On the other side of the ball, expect the Saints to put everything into stopping Todd Gurley and the run, and allow Goff to throw the ball to his heart’s content. His passer rating last week was 75. Whilst he looked after the football, that’s not a recipe for winning if you can’t run the ball.

If he can throw the ball well, the Rams may well win, but I have faith in the Saints’ defense to stop him.

The predictor picks: Los Angeles.
Rams confidence level: 50%.
Saints confidence level: No data. But 0% when predicted to lose this season.
My pick: New Orleans.

New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs

New England have the worst record of any team left. Make no mistake, they are the underdogs here. Again, I see this being a story of defense, or rather, the lack of it. Whilst the Chiefs will have their work cut out to cover Gronkowski, Edelman and the running game, the Patriots have it much worse.

Do you stop the run? Do you double team Travis Kelce? What about Tyreek Hill? Oh, did you also see Sammy Watkins is back from injury? Even if you cover all those players, Mahomes can run straight through you himself.

In short, the Chiefs just have too much talent to lose this game. It doesn’t mean they won’t (Andy Reid has proved that before), but Bill Belichick is the only reason people believe the Patriots can win this game.

Even worse news for the Patriots: the Chiefs discovered a half-decent defense last week too.

The Patriots may have a defense ranked 17 places higher than the Chiefs, but the Chiefs are #1 for points scored and #1 for points differential. It will show here.

The predictor picks: Kansas City.
Patriots confidence level: 0%.
Chiefs confidence level: 100% (so something’s got to break!)
My pick: Kansas City.

2018-19 NFL Playoffs – Divisional Round

After getting 75% of my picks right last week, how will I do this week? 100% hopefully…

If you followed last week’s picks, you’ll know I got three out of four correct, once ahead of my predictor. So, what about this week’s games? Here’s a quick guide.

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs

I correctly over-ruled my predictor last week by picking the Colts, and although I could look silly by doing so, I’m very tempted by the Colts tonight. Wishful thinking? Perhaps. But they’re on a roll, winning 10 out of 11, and Andrew Luck is an experienced quarterback who can surely pick apart the Chiefs’ secondary.

Andy Reid and the Chiefs haven’t always done well in the playoffs, but that’s not why I pick against them here. I’m more picking for the Colts, because they’ve shown in the second half of the season they are better than their #6 seed shows. They play with confidence, they have good experience, and they just look like a team that knows how to get it done.

If they can’t win in Kansas City, I don’t see anyone else doing so. It’s a brave pick, but I just believe in this Indianapolis team.

The predictor picks: Kansas City (7.5 points).
Chiefs confidence level: 100%.
Colts confidence level: 100%.
My pick: Indianapolis.

Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams

I’d love to pick the Cowboys here, but it’s almost impossible to justify. Yes, their defense is immense right now, and they are capable of shutting down the Rams’ running game and forcing them to throw. And yes, passing is exactly where the Rams look weak right now.

And yes, the Cowboys are 7-2 on the road this season. They’ve only lost on the road to divisional rivals. And they won on the road in the regular season against three playoff teams.

But this is where you have to read your stats carefully. They beat Seattle in week 3, and Houston in week 5. Both those teams played better as the season went on.

In week 15, they play the Colts. The Colts are the bar, as you should know by now. What happened? The Colts won 23-0.

So, no matter how much I’m tempted, I’m not getting carried away with the Rams’ struggles at the end of the regular season. With a week off to rest and reset, they can hold off Dallas at home.

The predictor picks: Los Angeles (10 points).
Cowboys confidence level: No data.
Rams confidence level: 75%.
My pick: Los Angeles.

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots

The Patriots are undefeated at home. The Chargers are still undefeated outside of Los Angeles, having lost one road game in their hometown, and won one home game 5,437 miles away from home in London. Follow?

Philip Rivers has never beaten Tom Brady. Well, I’ve not checked that, but everyone’s said it all week. More to the point, the Patriots are very hard to beat at home, and they’ve had a week’s rest. This Patriots team can be beaten, certainly, but history shows they are particularly hard to beat off a bye. I won’t be falling off my chair in shock if they lose, and I definitely think it’s closer than a 12-point game, but I’m not going against the NFL’s only team to go undefeated at home.

The predictor picks: New England (12 points).
Patriots confidence level: No data.
Chargers confidence level: 100%
My pick: New England.

(There’s no data for New England as this is predicted to be a closer game than any of their home games this season. All other home games have had them as strong favourites, which isn’t the case to the same degree here.)

Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints

The Eagles tripped me up last week when I picked the Chicago Bears, and I’ve not changed my mind this week. The Eagles are, I’m adamant, the weakest team in the playoffs. The Saints may have a weaker defense than the defeated Bears, but their offense is much stronger.

The Bears were found wanting on offense, but I don’t see that being a problem here, whereas I just don’t see the Eagles scoring enough points to compete.

In Power Rankings terms, it’s the #1 team against the #15.

The predictor picks: New Orleans (9 points).
Eagles confidence level: 33%.
Saints confidence level: 100%.
My pick: New Orleans.

2018-19 NFL Playoffs – Wild Card Round

With the NFL playoffs upon us, it’s time to see if I can guess the games correctly… of course I can! Right?!

The NFL playoffs are upon us once more, and this year, it looks as open as it has been for a long time. No team stands head and shoulders above the rest, unlike in recent years. In fact, with Nick Foles starting for the Eagles in the playoffs, you could (almost!) see any team winning the Super Bowl in February, and definitely and of the teams in the AFC, on their day.

On the AFC side, the Chiefs can score 50 to win if they need to – but, crucially, not 55, which can be a problem for on defense; the Patriots, meanwhile, have good defense, but an inconsistent offense, although they are the only playoff team to have a perfect record against other playoff teams this season.

The Texans and Ravens have excellent defenses but the Texans allow far too many sacks and the Ravens have an inexperienced quarterback who is a better runner than passer.

The Chargers are very good, but struggle against quality opponents, and the Colts have Andrew Luck, who is playing as well as I’ve ever seen, but they have to win on the road the whole way, which is tough.

On the NFC side, the Rams have struggled in recent weeks, as have the Saints in places, and neither team is strong on defense.

The third seed, the Bears, may in fact be the best team in the NFC right now (and lead my industry-leading Power Rankings), as although they are ranked #8 on points scored, they are the #1 defense (points), and top-four ranked both at home and on the road.

The Cowboys have played better as the season has gone on, but were shut out against the Colts in week 15.

The Seahawks are workmanlike if anything, and have joint-worst record against fellow playoff teams (33%, along with the Chiefs), but did beat the Chiefs by putting up 38 points in week 16.

Finally, the Eagles beat the Rams on the road in week 15, and the Texans at home in week 16. Plus, they have Nick Foles, who makes Tebow Time almost explainable.

So, all in all, it should be interesting. Here’s my (brief) thoughts on this week’s games…

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

As both teams are in the AFC South, they’ve already played twice. On both occasions, the road team won by three points: the Texans (37-34) in week 4, and the Colts (24-21) in week 14.

The Colts are much better now than in week 4. And whilst the Colts have an average defense, the Texans allowed 62 sacks in the regular season. The You just can’t do that in the playoffs. Colts led the league, allowing only 18. The Texans’ big advantage is their regular season turnover differential (+13). I fancy the Colts to look after the football today, and in doing so, to win.

Both teams are 2-3 against playoff opponents, 1-1 against each other, both losing at home. The Colts lost all three of their games in the first five weeks; the Texans won both their games in the first five.

The predictor picks: the Texans (1.5 points).
Texans confidence level: 50%.
Colts confidence level: 33%*.
My pick: Indianapolis.

*Yes, that means the predictor predicts [for the Colts] that it will more like prove itself wrong, than right!

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are 3-3 in games against other playoff teams, and the Seahawks are 2-4. However, if it helps, the Seahawks are 0-2 on the road, and the Cowboys are 2-0 at home. Which makes this look quite easy…

Seattle have beaten the Cowboys this season, comfortably in week 3 (24-13), but the reality is Seattle is not Arlington. Whilst Russell Wilson is great on the move, this Seahawks team have ground it out by doing just enough, and I just don’t think they have enough to beat a team that’s 7-1 at home, when they are only 4-4 on the road themselves.

The Seahawks are joint-ranked #6 for points (offense), and the Cowboys are ranked #6 for points (defense).

The predictor picks: the Cowboys (4.5 points).
Cowboys confidence level: 100%.
Seahawks confidence level: No data. But they’ve played some dreadful teams on the road and still lost, so I’ll go with “confident”.
My pick: Dallas.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens were, until week 17, the #1 scoring defense. They were overtaken by the Chicago Bears, but they still hold the #2 spot. The Chargers are ranked #8.

The Ravens are ranked #13 on scoring offense, which won’t surprise, but it may surprise you to learn the Chargers are only ranked #10.

The Ravens are 6-2 at home, but the Chargers are 7-1 on the road. Indeed, the Chargers score more points on the road, and allow fewer, than at home. They are ranked #3 on the road, behind only the Saints and Rams, whereas the Ravens are ranked #9 at home.

The Ravens have only played three games against playoff opposition this season, going 1-2. But the win was against the Chargers… in Los Angeles. They lost both home games.

The Chargers’ one road loss was against the Los Angeles Rams. So it seems like it should be a Chargers win…

The predictor picks: the Chargers (2.5 points).
Ravens confidence level: 100%.
Chargers confidence level: 100%.
My pick: I gut really want to pick the Ravens, but my brain says my predictor is successful for a reason. So, I’m going against my instinct and picking San Diego Los Angeles.

Philapelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears

The Eagles are without their starting quarterback, although their backup has a better record this season, and won them the Super Bowl last season.

Chicago are my #1 team in my Power Rankings (albeit slightly affected by the Rams and Saints resting players in week 17).

The Bears are 2-1 against playoff teams, all at home. They lost to the Patriots, but held the Rams to 6 points.

The Eagles are 3-3 against playoff teams (1-2 on the road), including a win against the Rams in Los Angeles. But they also got beaten 29-23 in Dallas, and only scored 7 points in New Orleans (not a great defense). But… Nick Foles, etc.

The Eagles are the lowest ranked playoff team in my Power Rankings, and are not top-ten in any metric. The lowest ranking for the Bears is #8 (points scored), and everything else is top five.

My predictor picks: the Bears (7.5 points).
Bears confidence level: 75%.
Eagles confidence level: 50%.
My pick: Chicago.

NFL 2015-16 Power Rankings

With the playoffs fast approaching, how do the teams stack up against one another, and who should we be looking out for on the road to Super Bowl 50? Well, the good news is, I can point you in the right direction (with a little explanation of how I got there).

For the last few seasons, I’ve published my own version of the popular NFL Power Rankings that appear on a number of sites. On most sites, these seem to be calculated arbitrarily, whereas I’ve tried to produce something that adds at least a slightly more scientific approach. What follows is an explanation of the method, but if you just want to see the rankings, they’re at the bottom of the piece.

It’s worth noting, before reading further, that I’ve adjusted my rankings formula again, so if you’ve read my rankings in previous years, they’re not directly comparable.

Finding common games

This approach is made a little tricky by the way the NFL organises schedules, but not impossible. No team plays the same sixteen opponents across the regular season, but in each division, every team plays a similar schedule across fourteen games:

  • Home and away against each team in their own division;
  • Once against each team in a designated NFC division;
  • Once against each team in a designated AFC division.

There are some differences in that schedule, as the combination of games played at home and on the road is different, and the final two games are unrelated, based against each team’s relative performance in the previous season, but it’s a good start. Thus, I base my Power Rankings on those fourteen common games, ignoring the two outside that.

Comparing divisions

As games are only common within divisions, I need a way to compare divisions. I do this by comparing the number of total wins in each division, as each division. Whichever division has the most wins is the strongest division (for now, at least). It’s the mark by which all the other divisions are marked. All other divisions are then assessed based on their relative percentage of wins. If the division with the highest number of wins has forty wins, and therefore has a relative strength of 100%, a division with thirty wins would have a relative strength of 75%.

Matching divisions

Whilst a good start, this is still very crude. What if a division had fewer wins than another because the divisions it was matched up against were actually very tough? What if a division Was matched against two weaker ones, and so had an easier ride?

Well, this is relatively easy to solve, as each division is matched against two others. So, by combining each division’s relative strength with that of the two it was matched against, I can calculate an overall division strength, and I do this by adding the three values together. Thus, carrying the previous example, if the top division has forty wins, and it’s up against two divisions with thirty wins each, the formula would be:

1 + 0.75 + 0.75 = 2.5

The resulting figure of 2.5 is the division’s overall schedule strength. A higher number means a tougher schedule. This value is then, for each team multiplied by their record as a decimal value, where 16-0 would equate to 1, or 12-4 to 0.75. The resulting figure is the team’s final ranking.

The final formula

So, the final formula (when fully expanded) looks like this:

(D + A + N) * R

Where:

  • D – Division strength
  • A – AFC opponent strength
  • N – NFC opponent strength
  • R – Record

Whilst form is important enough to be in, I reduce its weighting because I consider the overall division strength and record to be a more reliable indicator.

The rankings…

So, without further ado, here are the 2015-16 NFL Power Rankings (as of week 16):

TeamScheduleRecordOverall
Arizona Cardinals2.7350.8672.372
Carolina Panthers2.3820.9332.223
Cincinnati Bengals2.7350.7332.005
Denver Broncos2.7060.7331.983
New England Patriots2.3820.8001.906
Green Bay Packers2.8530.6671.903
Minnesota Vikings2.8530.6671.903
Kansas City Chiefs2.7060.6671.805
Seattle Seahawks2.7350.6001.641
Pittsburgh Steelers2.7350.6001.641
New York Jets2.3820.6671.589
Washington Redskins2.7060.5331.442
Houston Texans2.6760.5331.427
St Louis Rams2.7350.4671.277
Atlanta Falcons2.3820.5331.27
Oakland Raiders2.7060.4671.264
Indianapolis Colts2.6760.4671.25
Detroit Lions2.8530.4001.141
Chicago Bears2.8530.4001.141
Buffalo Bills2.3820.4671.113
Philadelphia Eagles2.7060.4001.082
New York Giants2.7060.4001.082
New Orleans Saints2.3820.4000.953
Tampa Bay Buccaneers2.3820.4000.953
Baltimore Ravens2.7350.3330.911
Jacksonville Jaguars2.6760.3330.891
Miami Dolphins2.3820.3330.793
San Fransisco 49ers2.7350.2670.73
San Diego Chargers2.7060.2670.722
Dallas Cowboys2.7060.2670.722
Cleveland Browns2.7350.2000.547
Tennessee Titans2.6760.2000.535

I’ll likely write a separate post about the various methodologies I’ve used to calculate the Power Rankings, and why I’ve changed them along the way. I’m also open to refining the formula and also to know if any of the teams look out of place in these results!

Wondering why I’m publishing this before the final regular season games? I’m doing it because I want to see how the rankings stack up against the week 17 games. Not entirely scientific, I know, but interesting all the same.