Tag: European Union

Reviewing Politics, 2016 Edition

It’s the end of the year, and what better way to end it than to look back on how foolish you were at the start of the year?

You may remember, at the start of the year I wrote my 2016 political predictions. Like many others, I suspect, most of these I now wish I hadn’t, as they turned out to be so badly wrong. So, I thought it would be fun interesting to review them…

Scottish elections
I predicted the SNP would win a majority in the Holyrood elections, that the Conservatives would win more seats than Labour and that the Green Party would win more seats than the Liberal Democrats.

Overall, a good start, I’d say. The SNP didn’t win a majority, of course, although they came very close. I was surprised how many constituencies they lost to other parties – the Liberal Democrats won four and the Conservatives seven, whilst Labour clung on in three.

Winning more constituencies, combined with a slight fall in their share of the list vote, meant they overall lost seats compared with the 2011 elections, although with the Green Party picking up seats overall, their is an overall majority for pro-Indy parties in the chamber.

In the end, the Conservatives did more than make gains on Labour – they passed them, comfortably, although with fewer seats than Labour had in 2011. The results were terrible for Labour, but they’ve not quite reached the bottom yet… that will be in May’s local elections.

The Greens did indeed beat the Liberal Democrats, by one seat. It would have been more, but the Liberal Democrats managed to win four constituency seats. Their local campaigns must have been exceptional, as their campaign nationally was abysmal, and all I remember of it is two randy pigs…

Verdict: Mostly correct.

The EU referendum
 I still don’t really understand this. People don’t usually vote to make themselves poorer, which is what they chose to do in this referendum. I guess, all in all, they decided it was worth it, or that it wouldn’t make them poorer.

More than six months on, we’re still none the wiser what will happen and how it will pan out, but 2017 will give us an idea. How much sovereignty will the UK get back? Is it willing to pay the price, or will it become a poor man’s Norway?

In essence, we settled on an answer to the question, but we still don’t understand the question very much.

Verdict: Abject failure

Jeremy Corbyn
Well, he did survive as Labour leader, but his MPs did try to stick the knife in. They just didn’t succeed, thanks mainly to their National Executive Committee. Once Jeremy was confirmed as being on the ballot paper, he was never going to lose.

Well, apart from those pesky elections outside the internal Labour Party. He’s still losing those. Badly. Although not as badly as the branch office in Scotland…

Verdict: Half-right.

Hillary Clinton
It turns out that whilst none of the Republican candidates were electable, she was even less electable. Quite an achievement really.

That said, I don’t think any other candidate would have lost to Donald Trump. Familiarity and contempt cost her. Any other Democrat candidate probably would have beaten Trump. Would any other Republican candidate have beaten Hillary? No one will ever know.

I still would much rather be seeing Jeb Bush as President-elect, but that ship has sailed.

Verdict: Not completely wrong – the Republican candidate is a crackpot.

London mayoral elections
I was half right on this one. Sadiq Khan was the winner, but it wasn’t the closest election yet. Indeed, it was the largest margin of victory since the first election in 2000 when Ken Livingstone won as an independent.

Verdict: Half-right.

2017 predictions
Let me have a think about that. It might be better to use a fake news generator as it may be just as accurate.

2016 Political Predictions

Want to know everything about politics in 2016? Well, you won’t get that here. But I can tell you what I think will happen, and we can all laugh at how bad those predictions were come the end of the year. Or probably in March, to be honest.

The start of a new year is always a great time to make predictions which will ultimately be shown at the end of the year to be entirely misplaced.

That’s certainly true in politics. Who would have predicted a Conservative majority government at the start of last year. Well, me, actually… But I wouldn’t have predicted Jeremy Corbyn would be Labour leader… Or that Jim Murphy would be such a disaster as leader of Scottish Labour.

So,here are some predictions for 2016. Most revolve around the Scottish elections, since that’s what’s mostly on my radar right now.

The SNP will win a majority in the Holyrood elections
There’s nothing I can think of that can stop this. The question is, can they win a majority on constituency MSPs alone? They would need to pick up twelve of the twenty constituency seats they don’t currently hold in order to do this. I think it’ll be very close.

The Conservatives make gains on Labour
I don’t see Labour holding all thirty-seven seats they currently have. They currently hold fifteen constituency seats. Good luck.

The Conservatives, on the other hand, will, I think, gain a small handful of seats, mainly on the list. They’ll gain on Labour more because Labour lose seats rather than by gaining their own, but I think it will be a bit of both.

The Greens will finish with more seats than the Liberal Democrats
The Lib Dems will struggle. I think they’ll pick up a single constituency seat and a few on the list. The Greens won’t win any constituency MSPs, but they’ll win more on the list, because they’ll pick up pro-indy, anti-SNP votes. I’d be surprised if the Liberal Democrats get 5% of the vote.

I would say Willie Rennie will no longer be their Scottish leader, but will there really be anyone there to replace him? I think it’ll be grim for the Liberal Democrats, despite the outward optimism they seem to have now.

Britain will vote to remain in the EU
I know Brits are hardly fond of the European Union, but I don’t think people will be prepared to take the risk of leaving when faced with the choice in a referendum. When making a choice, thinking about factors like jobs and money in their pockets, people will stick to what they know. They won’t want to take the risk.

Don’t believe me? Well, it was the same with Ed Miliband.

Jeremy Corbyn will survive as Labour leader
Getting rid of Corbyn would result in full-scale civil war. Labour MPs will decide to let him continue to poll badly, rather than stick the knife in quickly. It’s probably safer.

Hillary Clinton will win the US Presidential race
This will happen for the simple reason that no-one can beat her to the Democratic Party nomination, and all the Republican Party candidates that might do well are crackpots can’t reach out to enough voters. That, in essence, is the problem the Republican Party has at every election at the moment.

London will get a new mayor
But I’ve no idea who. London mayoral election’s are a mug’s game. I think it’ll be the tightest mayoral election yet, though. If forced to make a prediction, I’d probably pick Sadiq Khan, based on gut instinct and nothing else.